Canadian Employers’ Hiring Projections for early 2016

With 2015 being a rough and unpredictable year for Canadian job seekers and employers, it is reassuring to hear Michelle Dunnill, Manpower Area Manager for Toronto, Mississauga and Markham, in the most recent Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, describe the prospects for hiring in the first quarter in 2016:

“We are seeing some positive signs for Canadian job seekers, with overall employment in the country surpassing 18 million for the first time”

Manpower, who produce quarterly report on employers’ hiring intentions, sounded cautiously optimistic when looking ahead to the first quarter of 2016 in Canada.

Based on a survey of 1,900 employers across the country, the agency report that:

• 9 percent of employers plan to increase hiring
• 81 percent planning to keep staffing levels the same
• 3 percent were unsure
• 7 percent were planning to cut back on staff

In terms of sectors, the agency found the following:

• The strongest hiring prospects were from employers in the Transportation & Public Utilities, ​with Net Employment Outlook of 15 per cent
• Manufacturing – Durables anticipate a Net Employment Outlook of 12 percent, above last quarter’s predictions
• Construction jobs were viewed positively, also expecting a Net Employment Outlook of 12 percent.
• Wholesale & Retail Trade employers projected a Net Employment Outlook of 11 percent
• Public Administration employers report upbeat hiring plans for the next quarter, reporting a similar Net Employment Outlook, at 11 per cent.
• Services jobs were expected to remain favourable, with a Net Employment Outlook of 10 percent
• Employers in Finance, Insurance & Real Estate reported a Net Employment Outlook of seven percent, which is lower than the last quarter
• Manufacturing – Non­ Durables reported a Net Employment Outlook of four per cent, which is similar the previous quarter and represents a decrease of a percentage point over last year’s reported outlook
• Employers in the Education sector were less optimistic, expecting only limited hiring opportunities of a Net Employment Outlook of three per cent, which is a percentage point decrease from last quarter, as well as a decrease of 4 percentage points from the  same quarter last year.
• The Mining sector projected a lower hiring pace for the first quarter of 2016, with a Net Employment Outlook of ­9 percent – 6 percentage point decrease compared to last quarter, and a considerable drop of 15 percentage points from the outlook reported for the same time last year.

In terms of provincial hiring expectations, the breakdown was as follows:

• Atlantic Canada was most optimistic, with a Net Employment Outlook of 10 per cent.
• Ontario employers anticipated a mild hiring climate, reporting 8 percent
• Western Canada projected 7 percent, and
• Quebec projected 5 percent.

Finally, divided by company sizes:

• Employers in medium­-sized companies projected the most positive hiring prospects for this quarter, with an outlook of 14 percent
• Large-sized employers (250+ employees)  also anticipate a positive hiring climate with an outlook of 13 percent
• Small organizations report an “ambiguous” Outlook of 4 percent, and
• Employers in “micro­sized” organizations (1­9 employees) project an outlook of only 3 percent for the upcoming quarter.

[This data, titled The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is updated on a quarterly basis]